Innovations that were failures
Microsoft’s Biggest Failure - Windows Vista
Window Vista was released in November 2006 by Microsoft with the
hope that it would be a great successor to Windows XP. Howbeit, Microsoft did
not do very good scenario planning; they based their innovation on standard
forecasting on their past and current experience with Windows XP. A few months
after Windows Vista was introduced, users started having several issues (Krishnaraj,
2020).
Figure
1
Krishnaraj, N. (2020). [Windows Vista]. Windows Vista: Why did it fail?
One of the issues is the massive lines of code added, making
Windows Vista have 10 million lines of code more than Windows XP. Although the
added lines of code were supposed to improve the capabilities of the operating
system, the scenario for performance was not adequately considered. So, it was
very slow despite its high cost. Another issue that ensued was that Microsoft
did not consider incompatibility issues while working on Windows Vista. It
happened that the Trustworthy Computing program that Microsoft initiated to
combat the string of worms and malware attacks was not compatible with Windows
Vista, which caused severe issues (Krishnaraj, 2020).
Figure
2
Krishnaraj, N. (2020). [Error log]. Windows Vista: Why did it fail?
Furthermore, Microsoft was too eager to release Windows Vista to
succeed Windows XP without considering the differences in their capabilities.
Microsoft had the knowledge, but they did not understand that the future should
not be based on past and present figures only but considering some unplanned
eventualities.
Figure
3
Azquotes. (2023a). [John F. Kennedy quotes].
How Does Scenario-Type
Planning Support Planning and Innovation for Change?
“The scenario planning process considers
possible, plausible, probable, and preferred future scenarios through the use
of qualified data and information.” (Itonics-innovations, 2023). Therefore, every
planning or/and innovation should consider scenario planning. An innovation
based on only traditional forecasting does not have a strong base, especially
in this fast-changing world. There are a lot of environmental and technological
factors that are responsible for the success or failure of innovation or planning.
Who could have believed that Microsoft, which has been in the IT business, would
fail on Windows Vista? Innovation should not be based on only predicting the
future, but exploring the future by considering many scenarios, even the ones
that do not seem possible. Scenario Planning helps to explore the future for
events and thereby analyze actions to be taken on some “What ifs” (Adobe
Communications Team, 2022). Wade
(2012) discusses how scenario planning is an illuminator of the future and how
it should be used to explore what the future might realistically develop. The
world is growing faster than anyone could imagine, with several probable
changes in the market, innovation changes, political muddles, and legislative variations,
among others (IcefMonitor, 2014). So, to capture these changes and account for
their impact, at least to some extent, scenario planning is vital.
Figure
4
Itonics-innovations. (2023). [The scenario approach] Getting started with scenario planning
Itonics-innovations (2023) discusses four
ways in which scenario planning helps planning and innovation. Scenario
planning understands the future environment by considering the trends in
technology in addition to the key factors that are driving the market currently.
Another way is that scenario planning ensures the company’s viability
systematically by detecting threats and exploring opportunities. This will help
in the resiliency plans for any eventualities. Moreover, scenario planning
prepares for the future based on understanding several future situations
comprehensively.
Figure
5
Azquotes. (2023b). [Malcolm Gladwell quotes]. Malcolm Gladwell quotes
Scenario planning does not explore and prepare for the future;
it also shapes the future. It is a driver that helps tunnel the system in the
desired directions (itonics, 2023).
How I will use
Scenario Planning for Future Innovation Efforts
Now that I am exposed to scenario planning and
its capabilities, it will be an excellent tool for me for future innovations. To
explore the future for threats and opportunities, I will first understand the
present situation within my industry and the entire ecosystem in general. I
would not want to swim in what I know, but I will prefer to have a deep
understanding of the present situation. Check on my competitors to see what
they are doing and then explore what I need to do differently to make my business
stand out. It is not a good thing to keep the Business-as-Usual routine or just
make a slight improvement to it. Due to the high level of uncertainties in the
system, I will diversify, plan for eventualities, analyze different scenarios,
and have some backup plans in case of negative turnouts. I will continue to
re-imagine the world as the visionary I am.
Figure
6
Azquotes. (2023b). [Malcolm Gladwell quotes]. Malcolm Gladwell quotes.
I will conclude with
this quote from Peter Drucker, ”
Strategic planning is the continuous process of making present entrepreneurial
(risk-taking) decisions systematically and with the greatest knowledge of their
futurity; organizing systematically the efforts needed to carry out these
decisions; and measuring the results of these decisions against the
expectations through organized, systematic feedback.” Scenario planning is a
risk that is worth taking.
References
Adobe Communications Team. 2022. Scenario
planning. Adobe Experience Cloud Blog. https://business.adobe.com/blog/basics/scenario-planning#:~:text=Traditional%20planning%20assumes%20that%20tomorrow,would%20succeed%20in%20those%20situations
Azquotes.
(2023a). John F. Kennedy quotes. https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-change-is-the-law-of-life-and-those-who-look-only-to-the-past-or-present-are-certain-john-f-kennedy-15-61-59.jpg
Azquotes.
(2023b). Malcolm Gladwell quotes. https://www.azquotes.com/author/5578-Malcolm_Gladwell
Azquotes.
(2023c). Peter Drucker quotes. https://www.azquotes.com/quote/1023491
IcefMonitor.
(2014). Beyond forecasting: how to use scenario planning to map the future. https://monitor.icef.com/2014/02/beyond-forecasting-how-to-use-scenario-planning-to-map-the-future/
Itonics-innovations.
(2023). Getting started with scenario planning. https://www.itonics-innovation.com/knowledge/getting-started-with-scenario-planning
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